What does strong el nino mean for Mid Atlantic skiing??
http://www.accuweather.com/en/features/trend/el_nino_to_be_one_of_strongest/50081969
according to bob leffler...not so great...
"From: Robert Leffler
Date: Thu, Aug 20, 2015 at 2:32 PM
Subject: Strong El Nino's and Winter Snowfall Totals in Canaan Valley, WV
To: Robert Leffler
There's been a lot of talk in the national news recently about the strong-to-very strong El Nino now forecast to continue for the equatorial Pacific Ocean with high confidence for this fall and winter by many sources including the National Weather Service (NWS) Climate Prediction Center (CPC) (a record strong state is seen possible by some). High El Nino states at these levels impact worldwide weather patterns, including those over much of the U.S. and West Virginia.
Given this strong El Nino forecast, I thought you might find it useful to know what impacts, if any, are seen on historical seasonal snowfall record in the Canaan Valley, WV high country.
Dr. Christopher Vogel (Oak Ridge, TN Laboratories) and I reviewed 54 years of official National Weather Service published snowfall records for the Valley (1944-45 through 2001-2002 snowfall seasons), categorizing each season by ENSO states using NWS Climate Prediction Center (CPC) categories as follows;
El Nino (warmer than avg. equatoral Pacific sea surface temperatures): weak, moderate, strong, very strong
La Nina (cooler than avg. equatoral Pacific sea surface temperatures): weak, moderate, strong, and,
Neutral ENSO: (little deviation from climatological average Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs))
With that done, we then looked at snowfall totals and winter temperatures for each category to see what connections, if any, are seen. A brief summary of results of that assessment follows....
Canaan Valley experiences slightly lower than average snowfall amounts (134 inches is avg.) and warmer than average temperatures during El Niño phases (what's forecast this winter) .
In this limited analysis, Canaan Valley snowfall and temperature records exhibit a weak correlation to the ENSO phenomenon. During the La Niña phase, the least amount of snowfall was observed with 10% below average amounts. However, there is considerable variation in the snowfall totals within specific seasons. Some of the lowest snowfall amounts occurred during the neutral and El Niño phases, while some high amounts occurred during La Niña events. ENSO neutral states were seen to result in the highest average snowfall totals as a category.
These results are NOT a forecast of snowfall amounts for the upcoming 2015-16 winter. They aer simply a historical climatological assessment of seasonal snowfall amounts versus ENSO states. With the small sample sizes for the moderate-and-strong ENSO categories, statistical significance of the results are low.
One must understand there are many non-ENSO factors that also affect weather patterns and snowfall amounts in the local Canaan area. In addition to this event being one of the strongest ever predicted (only 2 other very strong ones have ever occurred in history), other wild cards that can influence local weather patterns include; fall Siberian snow cover extent, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), overall world SST patterns, water temperatures over the Great Lakes, etc. How all these factors and others interact is unknown and subject to great variability.
The results briefly summarized here will be published in more detail within several months in an upcoming issue of the"SOUTHEASTERN NATURALIST" magazine (Vol. 13; a peer-reviewed journal), under an article entitled "THE CLIMATE OF CANAAN VALLEY, WV".
I will stay in touch as we approach the upcoming 2015-16 snow season. Mother Nature rules!
Your Fearless Canaan Weatherman
(retired National Weather Service climatologist)"
TomH wrote:
What does strong el nino mean for Mid Atlantic skiing??
http://www.accuweather.com/en/features/trend/el_nino_to_be_one_of_strongest/50081969
I'm an optimist. Old Farmers Almanac.
it means you are going have an EC (equal chances) in the mid-a as far as percip and temps - and the NAO will determine it all. You'll know in about a week and 1/2 when NOAA puts out their three month prognostication.
The weather channel's three month forecast is out. It seems to agree with those that say that the next three months will bring above average temperatures to the east coast, but good news for the Rockies.
http://www.weather.com/forecast/national/news/fall-2015-temperature-forecast-september-october-november
