Running the race team I have to look at many states now and forward look. Not fun this year because of the forced rapid change we all have gone through.
Just data no politics you decide. Each human will decide regardless of government mandate if they choose to "Self Preserve"
WHY does all this matter to pre-planning? ah - Because if you fly a State may impose a quarantine upon arrival.
BWI to SL Utah at 245$ Round trip in Dec is a steal.
In Ski Racing we actually have rules that work for all states and all countries with standards by ASTM, CE, and Governing bodies.
-Everywhere uses different metrics and close open metrics. Kinda crazy for sure.
France, Spain and Israel all are heading to a lockdown again and all use the same metric but different rates. Infections per 100,000.
USA is the same each state different counts and metrics.
An interesting set of data is produced by Hopkins their case positive rate removes multiple tests on a person. MD Covid Positive rate is total tests. https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/region/us/maryland Using Hopkins case postive data 28 States are above the 5% recommended.
Good news is the death rate is falling beacuse of better thearpy and less hospital resource use by 30% each.
The notion more tests = higher rate is no longer true we peaked at daily testing in MD. We are rising in the 7 day moving avg of cases unfortunately.
many racers are over 60, first number age for risk level. I am just below 60 and still have a 4 for risk.
Look Ahead is hard, the projections on infections I can trust out 1 month, they do not look promising. Out to Jan 1..
We do see companies preparinng for a increase in cases in December.
Not an easy year to plan - hang in their. Each State will list the state you travel from and if you need to be aware.
Ed
It's definitely hard to plan ahead when travel restrictions change weekly. I've been following NM because I have a trip to Taos planned for February. Meeting up with friends from several states so we are in different situations. The following summary is a start, but it's not always the entire story. For instance for NM it sounds like a 14-day self-quarantine is the only way. But in fact at this point having a negative test 72 hours before arrival is sufficient to avoid the need for self-quarantine. So it's always better to look around for the official rules on state website.
As far as I can tell, CO, UT, WY, ID, MT are unlikely to impose travel restrictions. On the other hand, NY and New England states are working hard to keep people from outside the region away. VT has the most stringent travel restrictions, which even apply to people in VT counties with higher rates than "low risk" VT counties.
updating weekly, started Aug. 7, NBS News
U.S. states and territories are making new rules for travelers. Find which ones across the United States have implemented travel restrictions to curb the spread of COVID-19.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/map-coronavirus-travel-restrictions-inside-united-states-n1236157
As for tracking the situation in multiple states, I tend to look at CovidActNow the most often. If you scroll down to Trends, it's easy to compare a state with others to see regional differences or similarities. Can compare Cases, Deaths, and Hospitalizations. I also look at rt.live to see whether community spread is increasing, stable, or decreasing.
https://covidactnow.org/?s=1102246
not easy even for experts... https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=infections-testing&tab=trend&test=infections
each state and country is different, we shall see the pattern by mid November.
the link above I ran - CO, UT, VT and vermont looked better then the rest. all do show a peak.
I use projected infection rate and have no clue as to each state; what they will do if the infection goes up like in Spain and France, UK, etc.
many are a low risk. as in not on the CDC lisk of risk.
I did get Reg Fu shot sat and get PPSV23 Pneumonia booster in 2 weeks. Vitamin D is always low - I have to supplement it.
Not just weather planning, work planning, money planning but now covid planning. Add the reading what is covered by insurance and if you can move a date or move to next year.
Well, the VT authorities are making it difficult for the businesses that depend on ski resorts being open this winter. A huge document with all sorts of rules has just been released. I'm not going to bother to read it since I have no plans to ski in New England in general. Regardless of the content, seems a bit late to release guidance given that the season normally starts in a few weeks.
For those on Facebook, apparently Northeast Sociology has a summary, with commentary.
Vermont Ski Resort COVID- 19 Winter Operations Guidance
marzNC I saw the new update, I also called New York state Government #
The NY state number the Rep was a skier (very nice guy) and very bummed but he told me restrictions would change today. They did- even tighter.
States will update Thursdays each week. Expect change.
QUOTE """"
Ski areas are mandated to collect the name, phone number, and email of every guest to the resort each day for contact tracing purposes, similar to New York state guidelines for ski areas. Guests must also attest that they are in compliance with the state’s travel and quarantine policies. This information can be collected in advance online or on-site. END QUOTE """""
Well that says it all. ATTEST that you are in compliance. Attest is a legal term that refers to the act of a person swearing to or affirming the truth of something.
some good news - model runs every week and 7-day lag. Models, as they run, are like weather models they bounce a bit but as they close in they align.
The summary Peak dates are moving some back a bit some forward. NH, CO, UT very high case count run 1 today much more in line.
run 2 avg case of the selected states dropped a bit. Based on run 2 Park avg is Mid Dec through January
IF you plan to ski board and local midweek off-peak is the best bet. The issue in winter is less ventilation indoors and low humidity.
you will get your fun in just have to be flexible. Tuesdays always a good day.
ed
ZARDOG wrote:
marzNC I saw the new update, I also called New York state Government #
The NY state number the Rep was a skier (very nice guy) and very bummed but he told me restrictions would change today. They did- even tighter.
States will update Thursdays each week. Expect change.
QUOTE """"
Ski areas are mandated to collect the name, phone number, and email of every guest to the resort each day for contact tracing purposes, similar to New York state guidelines for ski areas. Guests must also attest that they are in compliance with the state’s travel and quarantine policies. This information can be collected in advance online or on-site. END QUOTE """""
Well that says it all. ATTEST that you are in compliance. Attest is a legal term that refers to the act of a person swearing to or affirming the truth of something.
Clearly VT got the idea of requiring detailed info for contact tracing purposes from the NY guidelines. However the VT guidelines seem to go one step farther and that's the issue. Not only are ski resorts required to collect the info, it's supposed to be in electronic form. Presumably in a searchable database. Coming up with a system like that in a few weeks is a tall order.
I'm not planning on reading the NY or VT guidelines since I have no plans to ski in either state this season. Only friend I know who plans to ski in NY who doesn't live there is in PA. So doesn't have to worry about travel restrictions since NY isn't going to fuss about PA, NJ, CT because it would be too impractical.
Good to know there are knowledgeable people who can answer NY travel restrictions questions by phone.
No new model updates. Does not look pretty. https://covidactnow.org/
This site is a bit better and gives case per 100k, R Rate Positive rate ICU headroom.
since you know where you are going maybe take a look down at the county level.
Nov 9. Northeast USA is expected to go RED in future
2021-the lost ski season...
I'm glad I haven't bought an airline ticket yet.
But as my Dad always said, things could always be worse.
my shrinks psychologists say the same. I read at a high rate and can find the most sources.
will ride the wave. go early or after the peaks if possible. Half of my team is over 50.
MY PCP doc gave me a level of 5 risk. low-risk person is a 0.
My doc says ed you are 57.5 can live another 20+, means plenty of time to ski. MY doctor and her kid's ski.
we are aware of - LONG COVID - the aftereffect can come back months later, 23% have lingering symptoms out 2 months. 3% death rate vs reg flu at less than 1%. Attacks endothelium cells. The lining of organs and arteries.
the new and improved covid ouija board -
designed to figure out where to ski on a given day.
It looks like states are going to go for somewhat of a soft shut down. VA is going to start mandating mask everywhere and essential workers start working from home if possible (not healthcare). WV looks like they are starting to mandate mask in any setting as well. I would not be surprised to see everything that is indoors to be shut down again. However, the uncertainty of outdoor recreation looms largely. Will states require people to get vaccinated if they plan to travel?
What are the thoughts on how this will affect the resorts, capacity limits, rental homes, and the entire ski season? I
If you saw A-Basin at the opening, it was a disaster, to say the least with overcrowding.
truth is not looking good - CDC has all projection models up. CO, UT not good MD increasing case counts daily and testing over 35,000 people a day. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/forecasts-cases.html
even without a govt mandate humans will self preserve
MD is projected at peak of 130 cases per day.
top 8 states today NOV 17, by Positive Test Rate
Loveland has been doing fine from what I heard from a local family. People are adjusting at Wolf Creek. Sounds like the lifties are being pretty stern about telling people to mask up.
PA is adopting travel restrictions based on individual testing as of late this week. Doesn't apply to people who need to cross the stateline for work. But obviously is trying to deter folks from states to the south and west from traveling to PA for social or leisure travel. NY wasn't applying travel restrictions to PA residents because it was too impractical. OH and WV are probably the targets more than folks from NoVA. The Percent Positive for Ohio is around 10%.
Update on Covid restrictions for Aspen, CO:
An affidavit requiring visitors to acknowledge they have come to the area with a negative COVID-19 test and understand the local public health orders is being prepared for mass distribution in Pitkin County so that lodges and businesses are prepared for its implementation on Dec. 14.
The affidavit will include confirmation that a visitor has had a negative test result within 72 hours of travel, or will quarantine upon arrival, either for 14 days, or until they obtain a negative test result at their cost in Pitkin County.
Visitors also will be asked to certify that they’ve been symptom-free 10 days prior to travel, as well as any dependents traveling with them.
A visitor is anyone who is coming overnight from outside of Pitkin, Eagle or Garfield counties.
Pitkin County is home to Aspen’s four ski areas: Aspen Mountain, Aspen Highlands, Buttermilk and Snowmass.
I'm starting to learn the counties in CO where the ski resorts are located. Eagle County has Vail and Beaver Creek. Keystone, Breck, ABasin, and Loveland are in Summit. Steamboat is in Routt. Sunlight is in Garfield.
Right now Eagle, Pittkin, and Garfield are considered Orange. Summit and Routt are Red. The CO COVID-19 goes to Purple as of a few weeks ago. At Purple ski resorts will be shut down, along with all sorts of other businesses.
A couple friends will be skiing in CO next week. These friends don't live in CO. They are using the Vault At Home test as needed. Not planning on driving to Aspen though.
JimK wrote:
Update on Covid restrictions for Aspen, CO:
An affidavit requiring visitors to acknowledge they have come to the area with a negative COVID-19 test and understand the local public health orders is being prepared for mass distribution in Pitkin County so that lodges and businesses are prepared for its implementation on Dec. 14.
The affidavit will include confirmation that a visitor has had a negative test result within 72 hours of travel, or will quarantine upon arrival, either for 14 days, or until they obtain a negative test result at their cost in Pitkin County.
Visitors also will be asked to certify that they’ve been symptom-free 10 days prior to travel, as well as any dependents traveling with them.
A visitor is anyone who is coming overnight from outside of Pitkin, Eagle or Garfield counties.
Pitkin County is home to Aspen’s four ski areas: Aspen Mountain, Aspen Highlands, Buttermilk and Snowmass.
marzNC wrote:
I'm starting to learn the counties in CO where the ski resorts are located. Eagle County has Vail and Beaver Creek. Keystone, Breck, ABasin, and Loveland are in Summit.
Actually, Loveland is in Clear Creek County. It's mailing address is Georgetown.
Summit County starts at the continental divide. Loveland is east of it.
Denis wrote:
I would like to know the numbers on a population basis for the colors and, more importantly, whether they conform to a national standard, or does each state set their own standard. The numbers for individual states are not too hard to find, but the answer to the question of a national standard has frustrated me. For purple, the highest risk, CA’s governor has declared that a purple rating will be given when the percent of ICU capacity drops below 15%. Many of the state’s counties feel that 15% capacity remaining is too low and that waiting for that is waiting too long. They generally favor declaring purple at 33%. A purple rating means lockdowns. Much of CA is there already. Overwhelming our hospitals and over-stressed health care professionals is now our biggest threat. Where to ski now, next week, next month, is a first world problem, if you’ll excuse the phrase.
The Governors are very much on their own at this point. The only color-coded approach I know anything about is Colorado. CO only added Purple a few weeks ago, so it's clearly an evolving approach. NM has a 3-tier county-level approach that just started. NC uses different colors. As far as I know these three states are using different metrics to determine the color-level and have different restrictions associated with each level.
County level metrics are fairly available for population and detected COVID-19 numbers. There are big cities that take their statistics down to the zip code level.
Unfortunately we are back to Flatten The Curve, which was what the Stay At Home orders were addressing in the spring.
NO NATIONAL STANDARD - STATES RIGHTS -
Since Colorado is in an 8-year drought - why go.
CO closes at > 350 /100,000 cases
Percent Positive 15.1%
Hospital overload
This was known 2 months ago
Peak Covid is 4 weeks away
I do know people who have had covid all have lingering issues - weeks later long Haulers
Denis wrote:
Hospital capacity could be overwhelmed very quickly. Probably every major destination ski region has the same problem to one extent or another. Notable excaption, Salt Lake City has a large and world class medical facility. A friend was hospitalized there a few years ago and was very impressed; in his opinion it was at least equal to the very best in the MD/DC/VA area. However Utah had a severe Covid surge recently.
I've been in Utah for the better part of the past two months due to a family emergency and have followed COVID developments out here ever since. It's become far worse over the 9 weeks I've been here. Case numbers are up, though they took a dip before Thanksgiving likely due to Gov. Herbert tightening the lockdown screws a bit. But he loosened them the week of Thanksgiving and now it's a steep increase in cases, largely from people who ignored the pleas to stay home and not gather en masse.
The hospitals in SLC are at functional ICU capacity (over 85 percent). Hospitals in other areas (e.g. proximate to Brian Head) are at literal capacity (e.g. Dixie County was at 100 percent ICU occupancy with cases being moved to other counties if possible and priority admission protocols now in use). Yet many Utahns still ignore the mask and social distancing mandates, still gather in big groups, still travel. This situation will continue to get worse until well into January at the rate things are going.
So while Utah tends to be a bit more libertarian (lower-case) in terms of how they're handling the pandemic, expect things to get locked down, even if on a town-by-town or county-by-county level. Some resorts are being really loosey-goosey (technical term) in terms of enforcing masking, physical distancing, and other state mandated safety protocols. To my eyes, it could put egg in the eye of many resort operators if things get worse and can be traced to specific mountains.
Pivoting back to our DC neck of the woods, Gov. Wolf (PA) just imposed additional restrictions in his state. In combination with the previous travelers' advisory it makes skiing in PA a tough sell right now. While I can ski in PA without issue (alpine ski coach for a PA-based team), the athletes I coach on my time can't do so without either getting frequent COVID testing or moving to PA for extended periods of time. I've even lost a few athletes and their families for the season due to covenants signed by students for in-person learning; basically, if they travel out of their local area they forfeit their right to in-person school.
I hope that PA resorts take seriously their role in keeping the pandemic at bay. I worry that many won't be as exacting in enforcement as they should ("we aren't agents of the state" many operators will cry). We shall see.
This will be a challenging season for us all. While I hope we can ski, I totally realize that this may be the season to contemplate other winter activities. I can miss a season. I've done so in the past decade (injuries) and it's OK. If anything, the cliché that absence makes the heart grow fonder is accurate.
I posted on this thread 1 month ago the projection of cases and peak is still wek 1 Jan 2021. Sorry to say the models are DEAD ON. Very DEAD on. Welcome to round two of closing. If we are lucky a 2 to 3 week close only.
Summit County Colorado officials have announced that the county WILL NOT require a negative test prior to arrival (Brekcenridge, Keystone, Copper)
Pitkin County Colorado WILL require a negative test prior to arrival (Aspen, Snowmass, et all)
The others?????
