Another 15-16" for Snowshoe M-W? Small chance but may have bigger impact than first thought.
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03/11/2018 0800PM to 03/13/2018 0800AM What's this? |
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County: All Selected -- KY -- Boyd, KY Carter, KY Greenup, KY Lawrence, KY -- OH -- Athens, OH Gallia, OH Jackson, OH Lawrence, OH Meigs, OH Morgan, OH Perry, OH Vinton, OH Washington, OH -- VA -- Buchanan, VA Dickenson, VA -- WV -- Barbour, WV Boone, WV Braxton, WV Cabell, WV Calhoun, WV Clay, WV Doddridge, WV Fayette, WV Gilmer, WV Harrison, WV Jackson, WV Kanawha, WV Lewis, WV Lincoln, WV Logan, WV Mason, WV Mcdowell, WV Mingo, WV Nicholas, WV Pleasants, WV Pocahontas, WV Putnam, WV Raleigh, WV Randolph, WV Ritchie, WV Roane, WV Taylor, WV Tyler, WV Upshur, WV Wayne, WV Webster, WV Wirt, WV Wood, WV Wyoming, WV |
| Location | Snow Amount Potential | Chance of Snow Within These Ranges | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low End Snowfall |
Expected Snowfall |
High End Snowfall |
0" | 0.1-1" | 1-2" | 2-4" | 4-6" | 6-8" | 8-12" | 12-18" | >18" | |
| Athens, OH | 0 | 0 | 4 | 31% | 15% | 14% | 23% | 11% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| Beckley, WV | 0 | 2 | 8 | 16% | 8% | 11% | 21% | 18% | 12% | 12% | 2% | 0% |
| Charleston, WV | 0 | <1 | 5 | 38% | 12% | 12% | 20% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% |
| Clarksburg, WV | 0 | <1 | 8 | 27% | 8% | 8% | 16% | 14% | 10% | 12% | 5% | 0% |
| Elkins, WV | 0 | 2 | 10 | 24% | 6% | 8% | 15% | 13% | 12% | 14% | 7% | 1% |
| Flatwoods, WV | 0 | 1 | 6 | 36% | 9% | 11% | 20% | 13% | 7% | 4% | 0% | 0% |
| Grundy, VA | 0 | <1 | 5 | 27% | 12% | 14% | 22% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 0% | 0% |
| Huntington, WV | 0 | <1 | 3 | 39% | 19% | 18% | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Jackson, OH | 0 | 0 | 5 | 31% | 12% | 13% | 21% | 13% | 6% | 4% | 0% | 0% |
| Logan, WV | 0 | 1 | 5 | 33% | 12% | 14% | 22% | 13% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| Louisa, KY | 0 | <1 | 3 | 35% | 17% | 18% | 22% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Parkersburg, WV | 0 | 0 | 5 | 29% | 13% | 14% | 21% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 0% | 0% |
| Snowshoe, WV | 0 | 3 | 15 | 25% | 4% | 5% | 9% | 10% | 8% | 15% | 14% | 10% |
Switch to: Range Exceedance
This Storm that we have been talkin about ...this southern storm...is arriving later than thought..plus..it will be too far south and east to do anything more than a brush for SS ATP (allthough the latest run of the Euro does look more promising...gotta see the next run for consistency) ....the snow will be coming on the wrap up...backside of the storm....
Thats were the Euro thinks the storm will be tue aft...thats after it scoots south of WV then tries to crawl up the coast a little too far off for big snows in the WV Alpps....but the backside wrap will bring that CheatMtn/Cabin Mtn Magic to the area..(Thx for the expression Bonzski!)...Cheat for SS....Cabin for Canaan Valley...
add the low end and the high end for SS that you put up Shotmaker and I could see a 3 day 9 or 10 inch snowfall...im waiting for more info to see if it looks to be higher...Hey..lose the main storm...grab the Backside...thats how the Wv Alpps Roll.....its all good!!!
fishnski wrote:
This Storm that we have been talkin about ...this southern storm...is arriving later than thought..plus..it will be too far south and east to do anything more than a brush for SS ATP (allthough the latest run of the Euro does look more promising...gotta see the next run for consistency) ....the snow will be coming on the wrap up...backside of the storm....
add the low end and the high end for SS that you put up Shotmaker and I could see a 3 day 9 or 10 inch snowfall...im waiting for more info to see if it looks to be higher...Hey..lose the main storm...grab the Backside...thats how the Wv Alpps Roll.....its all good!!!
Your right Fish. This storm has been a tug of war with the models. Backside snow is cold & dry the amounts don't really matter with the current base. The quality of the snow is why I'm up here today and for the next 3 weeks!
fishnski wrote:
3 weeks!...enjoy....yeh..ive been tracking this storm forever...mostly all the models gave up the Ghost untill now but sometimes these more Southern track storms find a way to edge back north...ive got my popcorn and Natty light..chillin for the show...I just did another look at the Euro which everyone bows down to and it did show a start to finish total of 12.2 inches at a 10 to 1 ratio which will be beat on that colder backside but im not ready to set the hook...I hate losing Fish!
Maybe a big red drum is swimming our way?
Looks like Tuesday morning would be the best bet at Snowshoe.
fishnski wrote:
Hopefully not a Red Herring!
they are not expected to get more than 2-4 today. However, supposed to have a little snow every day this week. Local news just said 8-10" in canaan through thursday. Kinda the same as last weeks scenario.
Being a "southern storm"...really a southern track and then moving north offshore up into NE....Snowshoe is allready reporting 5 inches (I was up watching the 1st flakes right after 4am..)....while canaan just 40 miles north has had like 12 flakes so far...
There is some energy diving down on the backside and when the storm spins up in NE it will be spinning down spokes of energy and with the stronger sun energizing these moisture feeds hopefully it will lay down enough for the whitegrassers to play on...TL might open to the top....WOW...Big news!..(Gag me with a ski pole..)....
Massanutten had 4 inches at the top as of lunch time.
Very strange weather pattern for March. It's snowing in Raleigh. Very wet and not sticking to the roads. . . yet, but I'm glad I don't need to drive this afternoon or evening.
marzNC wrote:
Very strange weather pattern for March. It's snowing in Raleigh. Very wet and not sticking to the roads. . . yet, but I'm glad I don't need to drive this afternoon or evening.
Just validating this - from my 3rd story window the view is fantastic. Now sticking to the open grassy areas. It never lasts of course, but enjoy it while we can.
According to the Wintergreen blog, they got 5-6 inches today before closing as planned at 3pm. The special 6-hour lift ticket for Tue-Thu when hours are 9am-3pm is $39. Can get lodging and a lift ticket for $92. If it were an hour closer, I think it would be tempting to do a day trip this week.
Snowshoe Facebook post from around noon today referred to "10 inches of snow this morning"...Cheat Mountain Magic!
wgo wrote:
Snowshoe Facebook post from around noon today referred to "10 inches of snow this morning"...Cheat Mountain Magic!
And the guns are on tonight! April skiing?
Bonzski wrote:
Canaan is just 35 miles north of SS if you go by latitude..45 miles north on a diagonal straight line...but canaan got an inch or less... Cheat beat but Cabin Mtn magic will be back...dont give up on these little Big Mtns ....Long live the West Virginia Alpps!...wgo wrote:
Snowshoe Facebook post from around noon today referred to "10 inches of snow this morning"...Cheat Mountain Magic!
And the guns are on tonight! April skiing?
Bonzski wrote:
wgo wrote:
Snowshoe Facebook post from around noon today referred to "10 inches of snow this morning"...Cheat Mountain Magic!
And the guns are on tonight! April skiing?
I swear they are trying to bury that ML / Anti Pastas sign next to Waffle Cabin. I was shocked to see the guns on last night.. I guess it's cheaper to make snow than to change that Anti Pastas sign to the Basin Supper Club ...... which closed in late Feb I believe.
6" over night and still snowing in Canaan over top a nice base everywhere, even in woods!
An "earn your turns" skiers nirvana with no rush to beat anyone to the freshies everywhere! I suspect a 1 skier per 50 acres ratio!
fishnski wrote:
Canaan is just 35 miles north of SS if you go by latitude..45 miles north on a diagonal straight line...but canaan got an inch or less... Cheat beat but Cabin Mtn magic will be back...dont give up on these little Big Mtns ....Long live the West Virginia Alpps!...
SNOW SQUALL DAY.....gonna be like Snoqualmie pass,Wa....cept WV march powder vs Cascade Cement....
The 10 day forecast for SS is looking awfully good. As much as another 2 feet of snow forecasted. If we weren't headed to Colorado in 8 days, we would be all over that. Unfortunately, with the daughter's broken arm, I suspect any more skiing is out (it's just my wife and I headed to CO).
This is looking like the best late season in many years. I hope several DCSkiers are able to take advantage!
Reisen wrote:
The 10 day forecast for SS is looking awfully good. As much as another 2 feet of snow forecasted. If we weren't headed to Colorado in 8 days, we would be all over that. Unfortunately, with the daughter's broken arm, I suspect any more skiing is out (it's just my wife and I headed to CO).
This is looking like the best late season in many years. I hope several DCSkiers are able to take advantage!
I just took a peek at the 10 Day and then this popped up on Facebook
WXrisk.com
NOTIFICATION - Model data shows ANOTHER possible significant Winter storm March 19-20-21 for the OHIO valley .. much of the Middle Atlantic and all of New England
IMAGE #1 - the 0Z Tuesday AM European IMAGE# 2 is the 12z Tuesday GFS Model. As you can see the GFS is further south and shows heavy snow in RIC as well as ALL of VA into MD... The Euro model has heavy snow WVA the northern half of VA DC A MD BAL
Yeh...ive been tracking this storm for a couple of days but the different models were placing the low at different spots..with different scenerios and didnt want to post anything till I was sure.....that dude you follow is a jerk and dumb to boot...he is nothing but a model chaser and he bows to the Alter of the Euro model so when it pops out a storm he will pounce on the Hype machine and milk what he can out of it till he either gets lucky or has to come up with lame excuses backed up by his loyal cult like sheep that he has hoodwinked....
BUT...with the way this march is going..March on!
I still can't believe that the current system panned out the way it did.
fishnski wrote:
....that dude you follow is a jerk and dumb to boot...he is nothing but a model chaser
He's a blowhard but I enjoy the banter and hype.
BUT...with the way this march is going..March on!
March Madness - root for SNOW in your brackets !!!!
Anybody checking out the blue skies to Puking snow thats been going on?....I loves me some Snow Squalls!!
More energy coming down the pike tonite..more after that....fun times..kinda misstimed my time up there this year allthough i did catch a great 2 weeks b4 CDart/camps Global warming set in...
If you're the adventurous type its the deepest its been in the woods in several years
Anyone see the Snowshoe Cams the past few evenings?? Between the dumping natural snow and early December type Balls-to-the-Wall snowmaking I'm pretty sure they're making a push for a May 1st closing date.
David wrote:
Anyone see the Snowshoe Cams the past few evenings?? Between the dumping natural snow and early December type Balls-to-the-Wall snowmaking I'm pretty sure they're making a push for a May 1st closing date.
David, I was kinda thinking an extra week to 4/8/18 but did not want to jinx it. Perhaps they are showing off for their new owners? What ever the reason, I love it..
I'm not a tree skier but oddly, their glade trails remain "closed". I have to believe there is more than enough snow in the trees.
Upper / Lower Shays reopened today.
Dang... still dumping at 11 degrees with 19" in the last 24 hours and 55" over the last week. Today would be epic... wishing I was there!
Blue Don 1982 wrote:
David wrote:
Anyone see the Snowshoe Cams the past few evenings?? Between the dumping natural snow and early December type Balls-to-the-Wall snowmaking I'm pretty sure they're making a push for a May 1st closing date.
David, I was kinda thinking an extra week to 4/8/18 but did not want to jinx it. Perhaps they are showing off for their new owners? What ever the reason, I love it..
I'm not a tree skier but oddly, their glade trails remain "closed". I have to believe there is more than enough snow in the trees.
Upper / Lower Shays reopened today.
Glades are open! Under the lifts lines are open. It's full on get your pass clipped time!!!!
I'm convinced - just purchased my first ever Ridiculous Pass. I hope to get 4 or 5 days out of it in the next 30 days! I'll be out there for the first time since 1987 on Friday morning. Whitetail was getting a little stale so I'm taking the plunge. I don't have the time and/or financial budgets some of you others seem to have but that price is hard to resist if you can get spring skiing in this year plus all of next year!
Bonzski wrote:
Glades are open! Under the lifts lines are open. It's full on get your pass clipped time!!!!
HAHAHA - I looked at 7 AM and the date said 3/14 but it was not fiully updated ! Poor Camp 4, the only closed trail in the basin.
(That trail sucks anyhow)
Ski those trees boys and girls!
mwolf00 wrote:
I hope to get 4 or 5 days out of it in the next 30 days!
Awesome. Next 30 days? Are you privy to some intel? They still say closing 4/1/18.
Blue Don 1982 wrote:
mwolf00 wrote:
I hope to get 4 or 5 days out of it in the next 30 days!
Awesome. Next 30 days? Are you privy to some intel? They still say closing 4/1/18.
I'm just being very optimistic! Even if I only get this Friday and Saturday this year, it is still a great price for that pass. Hopefully, I can get a few more days in Easter weekend also.
The next couple of days are where it's at. I have a 7 y/o with a broken arm and a talent show (she's in it, not me) tomorrow and Friday, otherwise I would be really tempted to take last minute PTO and head back to the Shoe.
Weather Underground is forecasting rain events starting Saturday, and going off and on for the next week after that. I'm sure they will still have plenty of snow, but the surface will firm up in a hurry. If you dream about dropping bear cave, do it quickly. I skied that line many years ago, and it was a lot of fun.
After the 10 inches of pow I skied on Monday I am set, not tempted to drop everything and head back out there at all...Ok, who am I kidding? Freaking out here.
What about next week? Fish, what's your crystal snow globe say...more Cheat/Cabin magic?
Looking to get out either on Saturday or next Wednesday. Guess I'll wait to see what the updated model runs say.
fishnski wrote:
Im waiting for the afternoons model runs to come in but Saturday might be a little wet..dont think it will ruin any ski party with all that snow out there..that Storm The Don brought up for next week looks like one of those classic rain to snow tuesday aft storms we see alot of...where will the low go..stay tuned for the next batch of Data!.....( response to the Bonz..)
Yeah Fish, not conerned about this Saturday so much as next week. Last weekend's forecast for yesterday and today was part sun w/ rain/snow mix . But we have Mtn Magic! Don't pay attention to the Don, the only models he looks at are the ones in Victoria Secret catalog.
Reisen wrote:
The next couple of days are where it's at. I have a 7 y/o with a broken arm and a talent show (she's in it, not me) tomorrow and Friday, otherwise I would be really tempted to take last minute PTO and head back to the Shoe.
Weather Underground is forecasting rain events starting Saturday, and going off and on for the next week after that. I'm sure they will still have plenty of snow, but the surface will firm up in a hurry. If you dream about dropping bear cave, do it quickly. I skied that line many years ago, and it was a lot of fun.
Sometimes I daydream about a layoff blindsiding me on a day when there is a HUGE storm on the way to the mountains. That's the perfect storm that could allow me to bail on everything for a two to three day quick hit storm chasing excursion. Short of that I'm limited to the same weekend and slammed holiday break days as all the other squares like me..
fishnski wrote:
"Don’t pay attention to the Don, the only models he looks at are the ones in Victoria Secret catalog."................wheres that like button?.....
hahaha. You and Bonz are rough on this ole fella. Let's hope one of those VS angels sprinkles some fairy dust and create some Cheat Mtn Magic v3.
You know what's funny - none of those FB hype ridden weatherheads came close to calling these recent snow falls.
Bonz - I'll be curious to what Panovich has to say soon. He does not hype it up.
Today’s snow was the best yet. Monday, it was little heavy but we got the fluffy stuff today. Western territory was awesome this morning.
Reisen wrote:
If you dream about dropping bear cave, do it quickly. I skied that line many years ago, and it was a lot of fun.
I got caught doing that last year, going to the side of it anyways. It was not received well.
Heading out there next Thursday and hoping it stays this lovely. Forecast for next weekend is mostly rain, from what I can see now. Lets hope for sustained cooler temps..
You all owe me big time. The second I leave for Alabama it starts snowing and it hasn't stopped yet...
dt3 wrote:
Reisen wrote:
If you dream about dropping bear cave, do it quickly. I skied that line many years ago, and it was a lot of fun.
I got caught doing that last year, going to the side of it anyways. It was not received well.
What happened? I usually ride the lift a time or two first to make sure no one is hiding under the lift line trying to catch poachers. I've seen, numerous times, patrol hiding behind trees waiting to jump out.
Reisen wrote:
The next couple of days are where it's at. I have a 7 y/o with a broken arm and a talent show (she's in it, not me) tomorrow and Friday, otherwise I would be really tempted to take last minute PTO and head back to the Shoe.
Weather Underground is forecasting rain events starting Saturday, and going off and on for the next week after that. I'm sure they will still have plenty of snow, but the surface will firm up in a hurry. If you dream about dropping bear cave, do it quickly. I skied that line many years ago, and it was a lot of fun.
The weather underground forecast has improved, considerably. Much of that rain next week is now being forecast as snow. It appears the weekend of the 24th could be very, very good. We'll be in Colorado, but get back mid-week the following week. If the conditions really do hold, I will be tempted to come up the last weekend of the season (which is FFX County Spring Break). My daughter's arm is in a brace, and that will have given it 3 weeks to heal (kids heal so fast...).
wgo wrote:
Then another day trip last weekend of the season with the family if conditions hold.
April 28th?
Bonzski wrote:
April 28th?
Damnit don't jinx us. I wish they'd just come out and say something like:
wgo wrote:
Gonna try to swing a day trip on Friday. Hopefully I can arrange things at work. Then another day trip last weekend of the season with the family if conditions hold.
Tomorrow, or a week from tomorrow?
Blue Don 1982 wrote:
Bonzski wrote:
April 28th?
Damnit don't jinx us. I wish they'd just come out and say something like:
- We are blowing all this snow at night to show off to Alterra
- We are blowing all this snow at night b/c we are testing for next season
- We are blowing all this snow at night to mess with Bonz and BD so they can text each other speculating
- We are blowing all this snow at night to see if we can prolong our season
- All of the above
They finally had enough...no snow making last nite and this morn even though teens but warming up a little this am with some warmer moist air moving in....just taking a break?......
GLOBAL WARNING!!!....
It snows south of the mason Dixon line in mid March......68 inches in 8 days!!....how many times have uall been riding a lift up north or out west and when you tell them where you ski they say..."It snows in WV?"...Arrogant Ignorants!
Dont get ahead of yourselves for the weekend after this coming..geesh..10 days away still!...
this will change and evolve but just taking this snidbit it shows a system moving in but look at that wedge look to it..warm air wedge..I Hate that about WV Weather more than anything..the infamous Warm Wedge!!
fishnski wrote:
They finally had enough...no snow making last nite
Correction - Guns were running at 7 PM last night. Not sure how long though.
Reisen wrote:
wgo wrote:
Gonna try to swing a day trip on Friday. Hopefully I can arrange things at work. Then another day trip last weekend of the season with the family if conditions hold.Tomorrow, or a week from tomorrow?
Tomorrow. It's a little iffy because my daughter has a school play at 6:30, so I would need to leave NLT 2 pm to make sure I was back home in time.
wgo wrote:
Reisen wrote:
wgo wrote:
Gonna try to swing a day trip on Friday. Hopefully I can arrange things at work. Then another day trip last weekend of the season with the family if conditions hold.Tomorrow, or a week from tomorrow?
Tomorrow. It's a little iffy because my daughter has a school play at 6:30, so I would need to leave NLT 2 pm to make sure I was back home in time.
I'm in the same boat, although I think my daughter's talent show starts at 7pm. I've got an important call at 2:30 I need to take, though, so I either have to stay in the village to take the call until 3ish (and really book it home), or leave earlier and make it to somewhere with cell service (Moorefield?) by 2:30.
Technically, I'll see the show tonight, so it might not be the end of the world if I was late or missed it, but I'd be using up a lot of wife capital having her take care of both kids all day while I skied. Plus, with a wife that skis, there's the jealousy factor (that jerk is out skiing while I'm stuck in an office and taking care of the kids!)...
I give it a 30% chance of happening, but will text you if I do go.
wgo wrote:
Reisen wrote:
wgo wrote:
Gonna try to swing a day trip on Friday. Hopefully I can arrange things at work. Then another day trip last weekend of the season with the family if conditions hold.Tomorrow, or a week from tomorrow?
Tomorrow. It's a little iffy because my daughter has a school play at 6:30, so I would need to leave NLT 2 pm to make sure I was back home in time.
Well, looks like this Friday is actually a no-go for me. Next Wednesday is looking more likely. Based on the current forecasts, I would expect the liftlines/glades to still be skiable. I sure hope so, there are some lines I really want to hit.
wgo wrote:
wgo wrote:
Reisen wrote:
wgo wrote:
Gonna try to swing a day trip on Friday. Hopefully I can arrange things at work. Then another day trip last weekend of the season with the family if conditions hold.Tomorrow, or a week from tomorrow?
Tomorrow. It's a little iffy because my daughter has a school play at 6:30, so I would need to leave NLT 2 pm to make sure I was back home in time.
Well, looks like this Friday is actually a no-go for me. Next Wednesday is looking more likely. Based on the current forecasts, I would expect the liftlines/glades to still be skiable. I sure hope so, there are some lines I really want to hit.
Same. The Mrs. wasn't as supportive as I'd hoped. Plus, I didn't get to bed until 11pm, so would have been running off less than 5 hours of sleep.
